- Arizona 9 p.m. – 11 electoral votes
- Georgia 7 p.m.– 16 electoral votes
- Michigan 9 p.m.* – 15 electoral votes
- Nebraska 9 p.m. – 5 electoral votes
- Nevada 10 p.m. – 6 electoral votes
- North Carolina 7:30 p.m. – 16 electoral votes
- Pennsylvania 8 p.m. – 19 electoral votes
- Wisconsin 9 p.m. – 10 electoral votes
Election Day 2024 is here. And eyes are on eight critical “battleground states” that could determine the results: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
These states, known for swinging both Blue and Red and thus earning them the name swing states, were pivotal to determining the 2016 and 2020 election results. Experts expect 2024 will be no different.
Both Republican nominee former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris have campaigned extensively in these battleground states in hopes of locking in the required 270 electoral votes for a win.
Tonight, Fortune will be covering updates to decisions in these key states and providing live updates after polls close. Here’s a breakdown of the states to watch and the times their polls close:
Arizona, polls close at 9 p.m. ET
Electoral votes: 11
Why it matters: Arizona was a surprise win for Biden in 2020, marking only the second time a Democratic candidate has won the state in almost 70 years.
Current polling: According to polling from FiveThirtyEight, Trump currently leads Harris in Arizona by slightly more than 2 points
Timing of results: Arizona waits until all precincts have reported or one hour after polls close to release results. In 2020, results first appeared around 10:02 p.m. ET.
Georgia, polls close at 7 p.m. ET
Electoral votes: 16
Why it matters: Georgia, a key state in both 2016 and 2020, flipped for Biden by a narrow margin in 2020. The state has been embroiled in legal battles ever since, with Trump facing ongoing legal challenges over his attempts to overturn the previous results.
Current polling: According to polling from FiveThirtyEight, Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in Georgia, with Trump up by 1.5 points.
Timing of results: Initial results could appear shortly after polls close, as seen in 2020 when the first data was reported at 7:20 p.m. ET.
Michigan, polls close at 9 p.m. ET*
Electoral votes: 15
Why it matters: Michigan, a traditional Democratic stronghold, swung to Trump in 2016 but returned to the Democratic column in 2020. This “blue wall” state remains critical for any winning strategy. GOP strategist Frank Luntz says to look directly at the city of Dearborn, Mich. as a sign whether Trump will win. He said “incredibly high turnout” would be “good news for Harris” indicating she’ll win the state. Otherwise, Trump is likely to take Michigan.
Current polling: According to polling from FiveThirtyEight, Harris just barely leads Trump by 1 point in the state.
Timing of results: Most polls close at 9 p.m. ET, though some precincts report an hour earlier. In 2020, the AP called Michigan for Biden by 5:58 p.m. ET the next day.
*Some parts of Michigan will report earlier, at 8 p.m.
Nebraska, polls close at 9 p.m. ET
Electoral votes: 5
Why it matters: While traditionally conservative, Nebraska splits its electoral votes by district. This split allows for the possibility of a single electoral vote swing if one district leans Democratic. The so-called “blue dot,” the 2nd Congressional district which includes Omaha, could give Harris a single electoral vote.
Current polling: According to polling from FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads Harris statewide, but in the “blue dot” area specifically, Harris leads by 7 points.
Timing of results: Early returns should start coming shortly after 9 p.m. ET.
Nevada, polls close at 10 p.m. ET
Electoral votes: 6
Why it matters: Known for its reliability as a bellwether, Nevada has a history of predicting presidential outcomes. Both campaigns have made significant efforts to sway voters in this small but influential state.
Current polling: According to polling from FiveThirtyEight, Harris and Trump are tied in the state, each with 47 percent of the vote.
Timing of results: In 2020, Nevada’s results were delayed to ensure everyone in line could vote. First data typically appears around 11 p.m. ET.
North Carolina, polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET
Electoral votes: 16
Why it matters: North Carolina has been a consistently close race, with Trump carrying it by a narrow margin in 2020. It’s a critical state for Republicans, and early results will set the tone for the night.
Current polling: According to polling from FiveThirtyEight, Trump currently leads Harris in the state by one point.
Timing of results: First results usually appear within minutes of polls closing, with full results expected within a few days if the race is close.
Pennsylvania, polls close at 8 p.m. ET
Electoral votes: 19
Why it matters: As part of the “blue wall,” Pennsylvania has a significant number of electoral votes and was key in the last few elections. Biden won here by about 80,000 votes in 2020, but Trump won the state in 2016. According to NBC, both Trump and Harris have spent more money in Pennsylvania than any other state, and both made numerous campaign stops there, including Trump’s viral McDonald’s drive-thru moment.
Current polling: According to polling from FiveThirtyEight, Trump and Harris are tied in the state at an exact 50-50 split.
Timing of results: In 2020, first results came in around 8:09 p.m. ET, with a final call on November 7, days after Election Day.
Wisconsin, polls close at 9 p.m. ET
Electoral votes: 10
Why it matters: Known for tight races, Wisconsin has been fiercely contested in recent elections. Biden’s win here in 2020 was narrow, making it a top priority for both campaigns in 2024.
Current polling: According to polling from FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump by 1 point in Wisconsin.
Timing of results: Initial data generally arrives shortly after polls close. In 2020, results were declared by the following afternoon.
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